Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 19/07, 16:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.64

JK Tammeka Tartu0.87

1X2

75% 16% 10%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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JK Tammeka Tartu 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1634 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1509

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	74%	16%	9%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1634 vs 1509).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.2 / 8.2	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +3’	1.20	6.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-2 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
05/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
13/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	19	14	4	1	49	16	46
2	FC Flora Tallinn	18	12	0	6	38	19	36
3	JK Nomme Kalju	19	10	4	5	33	16	34
4	Paide Linnameeskond	19	9	5	5	30	23	32
5	Parnu JK Vaprus	19	8	2	9	27	35	26
6	JK Tammeka Tartu	18	8	2	8	21	26	26
7	JK Nomme United	19	7	1	11	37	45	22
8	Harju JK Laagri	19	7	1	11	25	32	22
9	FC Kuressaare	19	5	2	12	19	33	17
10	JK Trans Narva	19	3	1	15	12	46	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva	3-1 W	1-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	2-1 W
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	3-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	6-1 W	1-5 L
Paide Linnameeskond	3-1 W	1-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	9	3	W
09/07	Caernarfon Town UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	5-0	6	5	W
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W
13/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
24/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	4-1	6-1	14	2	W
17/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
09/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W

JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
08/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
25/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (75%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 75%, draw 16%, JK Tammeka Tartu 10%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.51 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.64 · JK Tammeka Tartu 0.87), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.