Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 20/07, 20:00

Prediction: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.8Total

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn1.01

Lujan0.8

1X2

39% 34% 27%

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Draw Lujan

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDDLWWL

Lujan 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–2–0 Lujan (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1523 · Lujan 1568

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Draw	Lujan
Our model	38%	35%	27%
Market	39%	33%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.8 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lujan (rating 1523 vs 1568).
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Lujan
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.8	5.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.95

Under 1.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +10’	2.30	2.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1–2–0 Lujan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	0-1 HT 0-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
19/07/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Lujan	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn
06/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	0-0 HT 0-0	Lujan

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canuelas FC	19	8	9	2	22	12	33
2	Lujan	19	9	6	4	22	14	33
3	Leones de Rosario	19	7	8	4	19	17	29
4	Yupanqui	19	7	6	6	23	20	27
5	General Lamadrid	19	7	6	6	18	20	27
6	Sportivo Barracas	19	7	4	8	20	18	25
7	Deportivo Espanol	19	5	10	4	16	14	25
8	El Porvenir	19	4	13	2	15	13	25
9	CA Atlas	19	6	7	6	16	17	25
10	Central Ballester	19	6	4	9	18	21	22
11	CA Claypole	19	5	6	8	15	23	21
12	Central Cordoba de Rosario	19	4	8	7	12	15	20
13	Deportivo Muniz	19	3	9	7	14	17	18
14	Fenix	19	4	5	10	12	21	17

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

LDDWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D
30/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	12	D
23/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	4	11	W
16/05	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
09/05	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
03/05	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	5	6	L

Lujan

WWWWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/07	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
29/06	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
14/06	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
07/06	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
30/05	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
24/05	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	3	9	W
17/05	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
10/05	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
04/05	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn win (39%). Probabilities: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 39%, draw 34%, Lujan 27%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

The model expects 1.8 goals (Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1.01 · Lujan 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs Lujan?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.