Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 2 · 01/07, 12:30
Brisbane Knights vs Souths United
Expected goals: 3.97 (Brisbane Knights 1.81 · Souths United 2.16). The model gives 33% home, 21% draw, 46% away. Under 4 goals (53%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-1.
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane Knights 1433 · Souths United 1483
| Brisbane Knights | Draw | Souths United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| Market | 33% | 21% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.97 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.97Brisbane Knights 1.81 · Souths United 2.16
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 53%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Souths United (rating 1433 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Brisbane Knights: 2-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Knights | Souths United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 3 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 3.1 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Knights 2–2–0 Souths United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Souths United | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Brisbane Knights |
| 20/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Brisbane Knights | 7-1 HT 3-0 | Souths United |
| 21/03/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Souths United | 5-5 HT 1-1 | Brisbane Knights |
| 25/07/17 Australia Brisbane Canale Cup | Souths United | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Brisbane Knights |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | Virginia United | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | Pine Hills | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 22 |
| 6 | Souths United | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 26 | 22 |
| 7 | Caloundra | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 39 | 22 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | Mitchelton FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 17 |
| 10 | Southside Eagles | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 33 | 17 |
| 11 | Brisbane Knights | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 13 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Knights | Souths United |
|---|---|---|
| Caloundra | 6-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Southside Eagles | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Samford Rangers | 0-1 L | 4-3 W |
| Pine Hills | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 0-8 L | 0-1 L |
| Mitchelton FC | 3-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Grange Thistle | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Virginia United | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Taringa Rovers | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| SWQ Thunder | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 8 L | 5 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Souths United (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 6-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/04 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/04 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
Souths United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/06 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |