Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/07, 18:00
FC Ylivieska vs LBK
Expected goals: 4.39 (FC Ylivieska 2.8 · LBK 1.6). The model gives 62% home, 18% draw, 20% away. Over 4.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Ylivieska 1495 · LBK 1429
| FC Ylivieska | Draw | LBK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Market | 62% | 18% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.39FC Ylivieska 2.8 · LBK 1.6
Over / Under 4.25Over 4.25 · 51%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ylivieska (rating 1495 vs 1429).
- H2H favours FC Ylivieska: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ylivieska | LBK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2.4 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/25/25% | 17/33/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ylivieska 2–0–0 LBK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/25 Finland Kolmonen | FC Ylivieska | 4-3 HT 2-2 | LBK |
| 27/05/25 Finland Kolmonen | LBK | 2-3 HT 1-2 | FC Ylivieska |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VIFK | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Kiisto | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Virkia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 4 | SJK-j | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Nykarleby IK | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 26 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Ylivieska | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 13 |
| 7 | Sporting Kristina | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | SIF | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | VPV Pallo-Veikot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| 10 | KPV Akatemia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 7 |
| 11 | LBK | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 7 |
| 12 | Sääripotku | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ylivieska | LBK |
|---|---|---|
| KPV Akatemia | 3-5 L | 2-1 W |
| VPV Pallo-Veikot | 4-0 W | 1-3 L |
| SJK-j | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| SIF | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Virkia | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Nykarleby IK | 4-6 L | 5-0 W |
| Sääripotku | 8-0 W | 1-1 D |
| VIFK | 2-5 L | 0-5 L |
| Sporting Kristina | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Ylivieska (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ylivieska
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/06 | SIF Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/05 | Virkia Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen |
3-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen |
– | 8-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | RoPS Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen |
3-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
LBK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/06 | VIFK Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Virkia Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/05 | KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | SJK-j Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/04 | SIF Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 3 | L |