Football · China Super League · 04/07, 14:00
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals: 2.52 (Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 1.41 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1.11). The model gives 43% home, 28% draw, 29% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
43%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 1475 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1505
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Draw | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.52Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 1.41 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1.11
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tianjin Jinmen Tigers: 3-0-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.9 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 3–0–2 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
| 21/09/25 China Super League | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
| 01/05/25 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
| 29/06/24 China Super League | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
| 10/03/24 China Super League | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 21 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 17 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 8 |
| 16 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
|---|---|---|
| Dalian Young Boy | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Shanghai Port | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Henan | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Zhejiang | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Tianjin Jinmen Tigers (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 19/06 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China FA Cup |
1-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/05 | Henan China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Shenzhen Juniors China FA Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Henan China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |