Tennis · UTR Pro Kawaguchi · 16/07, 04:00
Prediction: Toshiki Karigyo vs Kotaro Mochizuki
Prediction summary
Winner
Toshiki Karigyo
Kotaro Mochizuki
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Toshiki Karigyo
5-5 (W-L)
Kotaro Mochizuki
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Toshiki Karigyo
4–3
Kotaro Mochizuki
(7 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toshiki Karigyo 1559 · Kotaro Mochizuki 1455
| Toshiki Karigyo | Kotaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toshiki Karigyo (rating 1559 vs 1455).
- Head-to-head: Toshiki Karigyo 4–3 Kotaro Mochizuki (7).
- Note: Toshiki Karigyo makes many double faults (4.5/match).
- Note: Kotaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (6.5/match).
Statistics
| Toshiki Karigyo | Kotaro Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.9 | 10.9-10.8 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 75% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Toshiki Karigyo 4 – 3 Kotaro Mochizuki (7)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toshiki Karigyo 4–3 Kotaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/01/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 06/01/26 UTR Pro Yokohama | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08/25 UTR Pro Yokohama | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/02/25 UTR Pro Kawaguchi | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/01/25 UTR Pro Yokohama | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 09/01/25 UTR Pro Noda | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toshiki Karigyo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Taiyo Kurata UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 14/07 | Christopher Rodi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Min Jae Kim UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Kosuke Nakanishi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Corban Crowther UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/06 | Shion Itsusaki UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Diordan Macababbad UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Ryota Tanuma UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Yua Taka M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Shixun Zhu M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Kotaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Koyu Yanagi UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Taiyo Uenoyama UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Soma Fukuhara UTR Pro Kawaguchi · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Kristijan Janev UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Filippo Alberti UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Baltazar Wiger Nordas UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Aleksa Pisaric UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Charlie Swaine UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Asaf Friedler UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 13/06 | Stephanos Schinas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toshiki Karigyo vs Kotaro Mochizuki?
Our model gives 59% to Toshiki Karigyo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.