Tennis · M25 Louisville · 15/07, 16:00
Prediction: Marko Mesarovic vs Ozan Baris
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Mesarovic
Ozan Baris
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Mesarovic
6-4 (W-L)
Ozan Baris
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Mesarovic 1521 · Ozan Baris 1587
| Marko Mesarovic | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ozan Baris (rating 1521 vs 1587).
Statistics
| Marko Mesarovic | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9 | 12.1-10.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 30.4% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Mesarovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Lorenzo Claverie Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Nicholas Gore Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Adrian Quiros Monterrey Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Alexander Petrov M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Avery Tallakson M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Will Mayew M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Amit Vales M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Nathan Trouve M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Ozan Baris
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Blake Ellis Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/06 | James Trotter Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Maximus Dussault M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Justin Boulais M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Mesarovic vs Ozan Baris?
Our model gives 72% to Ozan Baris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.