Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 14/07, 18:30
Prediction: Maximus Jones vs Ilya Ivashka
Prediction summary
Winner
Maximus Jones
Ilya Ivashka
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Maximus Jones
5-5 (W-L)
Ilya Ivashka
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maximus Jones 1516 · Ilya Ivashka 1572
| Maximus Jones | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1516 vs 1572).
- Maximus Jones dominates on serve: 7.4 aces and 50.6% break avg.
- Ilya Ivashka dominates on serve: 6 aces and 41.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Maximus Jones | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-12.3 | 12.5-9 |
| Aces | 7.4 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 77.7% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maximus Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Jangjun Kim M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Mukund Sasikumar Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 14/05 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Amit Vales Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/05 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Ilya Ivashka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Iliyan Radulov Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Agustin Siancha Borlenghi Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/05 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 22/05 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 21/05 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/05 | Manish Sureshkumar Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/05 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/05 | Keegan Smith Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maximus Jones vs Ilya Ivashka?
Our model gives 64% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.