Football · Australia Victoria Cup Women · 14/07, 11:30
Prediction: South Melbourne (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
South Melbourne (W)2.35
Heidelberg United (W)0.93
1X2
South Melbourne (W)
Draw
Heidelberg United (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
South Melbourne (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Heidelberg United (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South Melbourne (W)
2–2–2
Heidelberg United (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Melbourne (W) 1534 · Heidelberg United (W) 1433
| South Melbourne (W) | Draw | Heidelberg United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 17% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (W) (rating 1534 vs 1433).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne (W) | Heidelberg United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.9 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 1.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne (W) 2–2–2 Heidelberg United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Heidelberg United (W) |
| 28/02/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Heidelberg United (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 10/08/25 Australia Victoria Cup Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Heidelberg United (W) |
| 05/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Heidelberg United (W) |
| 05/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Heidelberg United (W) | 1-5 HT 0-3 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 13/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Heidelberg United (W) |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | South Melbourne (W) | Heidelberg United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Box Hill (W) | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Preston Lions (W) | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Melbourne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
7-1 | 9-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
Heidelberg United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Melbourne (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne (W) win (69%). Probabilities: South Melbourne (W) 69%, draw 18%, Heidelberg United (W) 13%.
How many goals are expected in South Melbourne (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?
The model expects 3.29 goals (South Melbourne (W) 2.35 · Heidelberg United (W) 0.93), with a 57% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in South Melbourne (W) vs Heidelberg United (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.