Football · Mozambique Mocambola · 15/07, 14:45
Prediction: Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Black Bulls1.48
Ferroviario Lichinga0.83
1X2
Black Bulls
Draw
Ferroviario Lichinga
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Black Bulls
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Ferroviario Lichinga
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Black Bulls
3–3–0
Ferroviario Lichinga
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Black Bulls 1517 · Ferroviario Lichinga 1533
| Black Bulls | Draw | Ferroviario Lichinga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 29% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Black Bulls: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Black Bulls | Ferroviario Lichinga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.9 | 3.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Black Bulls 3–3–0 Ferroviario Lichinga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Black Bulls | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 17/08/25 Mozambique Mocambola | Ferroviario Lichinga | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Black Bulls |
| 12/07/24 Mozambique Mocambola | Black Bulls | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 05/11/23 Mozambique Mocambola | Black Bulls | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 24/10/22 Mozambique Mocambola | Black Bulls | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
| 27/06/21 Mozambique Mocambola | Black Bulls | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Ferroviario Lichinga |
Standings · Mozambique Mocambola
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario Beira | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Songo | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Black Bulls | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Ferroviario de Nampula | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 5 | Costa Do Sol | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | LD Sofala | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Vilankulo FC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Ferroviario Maputo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | AD Pemba | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Chingale de Tete | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | Baía de Pemba F.C | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | CD Maxaquene | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Black Bulls | Ferroviario Lichinga |
|---|---|---|
| Vilankulo FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Ferroviario Beira | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Costa Do Sol | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| CD Maxaquene | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferroviario Lichinga (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Black Bulls
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | LD Sofala Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | CFV Vulcano Mozambique Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Vulcano Mozambique Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Chingale de Tete Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | UD Songo Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/05 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Ferroviario Maputo Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Ferroviario Lichinga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | CD Maxaquene Mozambique Mocambola |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Costa Do Sol Mozambique Mocambola |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/06 | Ferroviario de Nampula Mozambique Mocambola |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Vilankulo FC Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/11 | Black Bulls Mozambique Mocambola |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 19/11 | Baía de Pemba F.C Mozambique Mocambola |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/11 | Ferroviario Beira Mozambique Mocambola |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/11 | GDRT Textafrica Mozambique Mocambola |
3-2 | 5-3 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Black Bulls win (51%). Probabilities: Black Bulls 51%, draw 29%, Ferroviario Lichinga 20%.
How many goals are expected in Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Black Bulls 1.48 · Ferroviario Lichinga 0.83), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Black Bulls vs Ferroviario Lichinga?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.