Football · Argentina Nacional B · 21/07, 02:30
Prediction: Central Norte vs Deportivo Moron
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Central Norte0.99
Deportivo Moron1.04
1X2
Central Norte
Draw
Deportivo Moron
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Central Norte
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Moron
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central Norte
0–1–2
Deportivo Moron
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Norte 1468 · Deportivo Moron 1529
| Central Norte | Draw | Deportivo Moron | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Market | 32% | 34% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Moron (rating 1468 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Deportivo Moron: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Norte | Deportivo Moron | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 1.2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.7 | 5.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Norte 0–1–2 Deportivo Moron
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Central Norte |
| 22/06/25 Argentina Nacional B | Central Norte | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Moron |
| 16/02/25 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Moron | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Central Norte |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Colon | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 35 |
| 4 | Los Andes | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 32 |
| 5 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 30 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 30 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
| 8 | Deportivo Madryn | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 22 | 29 |
| 9 | Godoy Cruz | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 28 |
| 10 | CA San Miguel | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Racing de Cordoba | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 24 |
| 12 | Defensores de Belgrano | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 23 |
| 13 | All Boys | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 21 |
| 14 | CA San Telmo | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
| 15 | Acassuso | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 19 |
| 16 | Central Norte | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 19 |
| 17 | Club Atletico Mitre | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 18 |
| 18 | CA Chaco For Ever | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 16 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Norte | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Madryn | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Defensores de Belgrano | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Central Norte (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Norte
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Deportivo Moron
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/06 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 19/05 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central Norte vs Deportivo Moron?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Moron win (34%). Probabilities: Central Norte 32%, draw 34%, Deportivo Moron 34%.
How many goals are expected in Central Norte vs Deportivo Moron?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Central Norte 0.99 · Deportivo Moron 1.04), with a 57% chance of over 1.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Central Norte vs Deportivo Moron?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.