Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 20/07, 22:00
Prediction: Torque vs Danubio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Torque1.55
Danubio0.85
1X2
Torque
Draw
Danubio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Torque
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Danubio
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Torque
1–2–3
Danubio
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Torque 1510 · Danubio 1470
| Torque | Draw | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torque (rating 1510 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Danubio: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Torque | Danubio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Torque 1–2–3 Danubio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Danubio | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Torque |
| 28/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Torque |
| 07/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Danubio | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Torque |
| 30/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Torque | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Danubio |
| 20/08/23 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Torque |
| 16/06/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Danubio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Torque |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Montevideo Wanderers | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Torque | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Albion FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 7 | Danubio | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Progreso | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Torque | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 2-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Albion FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Nacional De Football | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Torque (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Torque
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 27/05 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Riestra Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/05 | Palestino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
Danubio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 05/07 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 09/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Torque vs Danubio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Torque win (53%). Probabilities: Torque 53%, draw 26%, Danubio 20%.
How many goals are expected in Torque vs Danubio?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Torque 1.55 · Danubio 0.85), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Torque vs Danubio?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.