Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 18/07, 12:30
Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.73Total
University Azzurri FC3.36
Port Darwin FC1.36
1X2
University Azzurri FC
Draw
Port Darwin FC
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
University Azzurri FC
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Port Darwin FC
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University Azzurri FC
3–2–1
Port Darwin FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1650 · Port Darwin FC 1527
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 76% | 13% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.73 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1650 vs 1527).
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.7 / 0.9 | 3.9 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.7 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 3–2–1 Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 12/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-4 HT 1-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 31/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 01/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 29/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 3 | Mindil Aces | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 23 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 21 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 32 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 58 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 43 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University Azzurri FC | Port Darwin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Casuarina FC | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Garuda FC | 10-0 W | 5-3 W |
| Mindil Aces | 3-2 W | 0-8 L |
| Hellenic AC | 5-1 W | 6-2 W |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-1 W | 10-0 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 3-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (76%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 76%, draw 13%, Port Darwin FC 11%.
How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model expects 4.73 goals (University Azzurri FC 3.36 · Port Darwin FC 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.