Football · Australia Western Australia Premier League · 17/07, 13:00
Prediction: Bayswater City vs Sorrento
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.71Total
Bayswater City2.61
Sorrento1.1
1X2
Bayswater City
Draw
Sorrento
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bayswater City
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Sorrento
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayswater City
4–2
Sorrento
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayswater City 1585 · Sorrento 1422
| Bayswater City | Draw | Sorrento | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayswater City (rating 1585 vs 1422).
- H2H favours Bayswater City: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayswater City | Sorrento | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.3 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.4 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayswater City 4–0–2 Sorrento
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Sorrento | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Bayswater City |
| 14/06/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Sorrento | 2-4 HT 0-3 | Bayswater City |
| 14/03/25 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Bayswater City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sorrento |
| 10/06/23 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Sorrento | 5-2 HT 2-2 | Bayswater City |
| 17/03/23 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Bayswater City | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Sorrento |
| 09/07/22 Australia Western Australia Premier League | Bayswater City | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Sorrento |
Standings · Australia Western Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perth RedStar FC | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 37 |
| 2 | Bayswater City | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 42 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Olympic Kingsway | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 25 | 33 |
| 4 | Perth SC | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 31 | 30 |
| 5 | Fremantle City FC | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Stirling Macedonia | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 27 | 23 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Dianella White Eagles | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 31 | 20 |
| 9 | Sorrento | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 31 | 20 |
| 10 | Armadale | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 45 | 15 |
| 11 | Perth Glory NPL | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 36 | 13 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 49 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayswater City | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle City FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Perth RedStar FC | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Western Knights | 4-4 D | 0-2 L |
| Armadale | 5-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Dianella White Eagles | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| Stirling Macedonia | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Olympic Kingsway | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayswater City (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayswater City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 26/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/06 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-3 | 4-3 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Sorrento Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Perth Glory NPL Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
Sorrento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Fremantle City FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Western Knights Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Dianella White Eagles Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Armadale Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Stirling Macedonia Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Balcatta Australia Western Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Bayswater City Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Olympic Kingsway Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Perth SC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Perth RedStar FC Australia Western Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayswater City vs Sorrento?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayswater City win (70%). Probabilities: Bayswater City 70%, draw 17%, Sorrento 13%.
How many goals are expected in Bayswater City vs Sorrento?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Bayswater City 2.61 · Sorrento 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayswater City vs Sorrento?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.