Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1584 · Sebastian Gorzny 1532
| Adam Walton | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adam Walton (rating 1584 vs 1532).
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-10.6 | 11.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Antoine Ghibaudo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Federico Bondioli ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Landon Ardila M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Blake Ellis M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Mikael Arseneault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/11 | Loren Byers ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 71% to Adam Walton, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.