Tennis · Challenger Granby · 12/07, 17:30
Prediction: Dan Martin vs Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Dan Martin
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Dan Martin
4-6 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Dan Martin
1–0
Mikael Arseneault
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dan Martin 1434 · Mikael Arseneault 1493
| Dan Martin | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mikael Arseneault (rating 1434 vs 1493).
- Mikael Arseneault is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Dan Martin 1–0 Mikael Arseneault (1).
Statistics
| Dan Martin | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (4) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-12.8 | 11.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 63% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Dan Martin 1 – 0 Mikael Arseneault (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dan Martin 1–0 Mikael Arseneault
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/25 M15 Villahermosa | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dan Martin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Zsombor Velcz M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 24/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Kaylan Bigun M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Ryan Haviland M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/04 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Boris Arias Challenger Tallahassee · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/04 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Mikael Arseneault
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Oliver Ojakaar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/11 | Liam Draxl Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 10/11 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/11 | Ben Jones Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dan Martin vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 55% to Dan Martin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.