Tennis · ATP Bastad · 12/07, 10:00
Prediction: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover
Prediction summary
Winner
Roberto Carballes Baena
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Roberto Carballes Baena
7-3 (W-L)
Carlos Sanchez Jover
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roberto Carballes Baena 1532 · Carlos Sanchez Jover 1496
| Roberto Carballes Baena | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Roberto Carballes Baena | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.2 | 12.1-13.6 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 50.6% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.1
Over 19.5: 76% · 1.72
Under 19.5: 24% · 2.00
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roberto Carballes Baena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Ceban Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 12/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/06 | Gianmarco Ferrari Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Emilien Demanet Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 11/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Manuel Mazza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover?
Our model gives 68% to Roberto Carballes Baena, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.