Tennis · WTA Athens · 14/07, 15:00
Prediction: Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Clara Tauson
Ajla Tomljanovic
Estimated games
24.8
Recent form · 10 last
Clara Tauson
4-6 (W-L)
Ajla Tomljanovic
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Clara Tauson
2–3
Ajla Tomljanovic
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Clara Tauson 1454 · Ajla Tomljanovic 1531
| Clara Tauson | Ajla Tomljanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajla Tomljanovic (rating 1454 vs 1531).
- Ajla Tomljanovic is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Clara Tauson 2–3 Ajla Tomljanovic (5).
- Note: Ajla Tomljanovic makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Clara Tauson | Ajla Tomljanovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-12.4 | 13.1-11.2 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 5.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 29.3% | 52.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8
H2H · Clara Tauson 2 – 3 Ajla Tomljanovic (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Clara Tauson 2–3 Ajla Tomljanovic
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/25 WTA Ningbo | 1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 10/08/25 WTA Cincinnati | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 06/10/24 WTA Hong Kong | 1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 13/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/04/21 WTA Charleston | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Clara Tauson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Diana Shnaider WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Diane Parry WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Mia Pohankova WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Daria Snigur French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Jaqueline Adina Cristian WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 08/03 | Talia Gibson WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 06/03 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Indian Wells · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Ajla Tomljanovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Mariam Bolkvadze Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Tereza Valentova WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 21/06 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Caty McNally WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Dayana Yastremska WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/05 | Caty McNally French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic?
Our model gives 51% to Ajla Tomljanovic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.