Tennis · W35 Hillcrest · 09/07, 11:30
Prediction: Danielle Dai Chapman vs Ksenia Smirnova
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Ksenia Smirnova; the market gives 81% to Ksenia Smirnova (odds 1.14).
On recent form, Danielle Dai Chapman is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Ksenia Smirnova 7-3 over theirs.
68%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Danielle Dai Chapman 1529 · Ksenia Smirnova 1543
| Danielle Dai Chapman | Ksenia Smirnova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ksenia Smirnova makes many double faults (7.3/match).
Statistics
| Danielle Dai Chapman | Ksenia Smirnova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-7.5 | 9.6-8.5 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 7.3 |
| 1st serve % | 61.3% | 58.2% |
| Break % | 52% | 62.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Danielle Dai Chapman
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Farah Heddar W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 02/07 | Jenny Duerst W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Sasha Natalie Chimedza W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/05 | Dominika Podhajecka W15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Swasthika Arunkumar W15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/05 | Emma Van Poppel W15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/05 | Dune Vaissaud W15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Elena Jamshidi W15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 05/05 | Morgan Jordaan W15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/05 | Selina Atay W15 Mbombela · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
Ksenia Smirnova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Dominika Podhajecka W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenny Duerst W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Nelise Verster W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Valentina Khrebtova W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Anastasiya Krymkova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Irem Kurt W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/05 | Elizaveta Gurianova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/05 | Chrystal Lopez W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 23/05 | Demi Tran W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Danielle Dai Chapman vs Ksenia Smirnova?
Our model gives 68% to Ksenia Smirnova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.