Tennis · W15 Astana · 09/07, 06:00
Prediction: Rinko Matsuda vs Ingkar Dyussebay
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Rinko Matsuda; the market gives 75% to Rinko Matsuda (odds 1.25).
Over their last 10 matches, Rinko Matsuda sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Ingkar Dyussebay arrives on a 5-5 run.
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rinko Matsuda 1525 · Ingkar Dyussebay 1485
| Rinko Matsuda | Ingkar Dyussebay | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinko Matsuda (rating 1525 vs 1485).
- Note: Ingkar Dyussebay makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Rinko Matsuda | Ingkar Dyussebay | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-9.2 | 10-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.3% | 62.5% |
| Break % | 60.7% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rinko Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Daria Belyaeva W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Anna Snigireva W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Evialina Laskevich W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Hanna Chang W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Maklakova W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Hiromi Abe W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Eunchae Kim W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Fang An Lin W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Tsuki Shibutani W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sae Noguchi W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Ingkar Dyussebay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Anastasiya Krymkova W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Satima Toregen W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Emily Sartz-Lunde W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Ilay Yoruk W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Anastasiia Kostiushkina W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/05 | Marie Villet W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Anna Kartseva W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/10 | Cheuk Ying Shek ITF W15 Tashkent |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/10 | Ekaterina Maklakova ITF W15 Tashkent |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Stefaniya Neporent W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-1 | 6-8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rinko Matsuda vs Ingkar Dyussebay?
Our model gives 66% to Rinko Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.