Tennis · M15 Wuning · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Daniil Sarksian vs Xing Dao Chen
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Xing Dao Chen; the market gives 63% to Daniil Sarksian (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Daniil Sarksian with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Xing Dao Chen has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniil Sarksian 1430 · Xing Dao Chen 1476
| Daniil Sarksian | Xing Dao Chen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xing Dao Chen (rating 1430 vs 1476).
Statistics
| Daniil Sarksian | Xing Dao Chen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 14% (7) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-11.6 | 9.9-10.8 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 59.7% |
| Break % | 46.1% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniil Sarksian
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Ye Cong Mo M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-1 | 7-11 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktor Frydrych M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 10/06 | Ryuki Matsuda M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Nicholas David Ionel M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Nicola Ion M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/05 | Saba Purtseladze M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Semen Pankin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Xing Dao Chen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sheng Tang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Yuquan Jin M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Yuta Tomida M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Diordan Macababbad M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/06 | Siwanat Auytayakul M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | James Van Herzeele M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Ryusuke Horiuchi M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Qian Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniil Sarksian vs Xing Dao Chen?
Our model gives 54% to Daniil Sarksian, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.