Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Marvin Moeller; the market gives 81% to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (odds 1.17).
On recent form, Marvin Moeller is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 5-5 over theirs.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1631 · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 1520
| Marvin Moeller | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1631 vs 1520).
- Marvin Moeller is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.5-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-9.6 | 14.8-13.1 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 57% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 05/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Dylan Dietrich M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Tom Zeuch M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/06 | David Tixhon M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Leo Deflandre M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-24 | L |
| 21/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 26-25 | L |
| 17/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/05 | Jaume Munar Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 15/05 | Zizou Bergs Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/05 | Nicolas Alvarez Varona Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 12/05 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/05 | Jaime Faria ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
Our model gives 60% to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.