Tennis · W50 Corroios-Seixal · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Nao Hibino vs Xinyu Gao
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Nao Hibino; the market gives 50% to Nao Hibino (odds 1.83).
On recent form, Nao Hibino is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Xinyu Gao 6-4 over theirs.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nao Hibino 1522 · Xinyu Gao 1462
| Nao Hibino | Xinyu Gao | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nao Hibino (rating 1522 vs 1462).
- Xinyu Gao dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nao Hibino 0–2 Xinyu Gao (2).
- Note: Nao Hibino makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Nao Hibino | Xinyu Gao | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-8.8 | 9.7-10.1 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 10.3 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 58.5% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Nao Hibino 0 – 2 Xinyu Gao (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nao Hibino 0–2 Xinyu Gao
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/22 ITF W25 Chiang Rai | 1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/06/22 ITF W25 Chiang Rai | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nao Hibino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Lucie Havlickova W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Carol Young Suh Lee W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Vaishnavi Adkar W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Iveta Dapkute W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Darja Semenistaja Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Priscilla Hon Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/06 | Katie Volynets WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Janice Tjen WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 31/05 | Vendula Valdmannova WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Xinyu Gao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Daria Khomutsianskaya W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Xiyu Wang WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Darya Astakhova WTA Foggia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Harmony Tan French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 19/05 | Darja Vidmanova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/04 | Polona Hercog WTA Huzhou · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 24/04 | Varvara Panshina W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Meiqi Guo W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/04 | Sitong Chen W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nao Hibino vs Xinyu Gao?
Our model gives 54% to Nao Hibino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.