Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 08:30
Prediction: Sophie Luescher vs Lucia Natal
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Sophie Luescher; the market gives 46% to Sophie Luescher (odds 2.00).
Over their last 10 matches, Sophie Luescher sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Lucia Natal arrives on a 1-9 run.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sophie Luescher 1529 · Lucia Natal 1454
| Sophie Luescher | Lucia Natal | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sophie Luescher (rating 1529 vs 1454).
- Sophie Luescher is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Sophie Luescher makes many double faults (4.8/match).
- Note: Lucia Natal makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Sophie Luescher | Lucia Natal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-8.8 | 7.3-11.5 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 59.7% | 52.9% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sophie Luescher
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Verica Zrnic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Dunja Maric W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/06 | Stela Dzimovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Emily Seibold W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ashley Lahey W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Danique Havermans W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Stoney Cooks W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/04 | Sevil Yuldasheva W15 Madrid |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Nuppu Palm W15 Madrid |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/03 | Laima Vladson W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Lucia Natal
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Cayetana Gay W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Georgina Hays W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Polona Hercog W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 17/03 | Despina Papamichail W50 Chihuahua |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/03 | Jenna Dean W50 Chihuahua |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/02 | Maria Sara Popa W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Yujia Huang W15 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-11 | L |
| 06/12 | Franziska Sziedat ITF W15 Melilla · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sophie Luescher vs Lucia Natal?
Our model gives 53% to Sophie Luescher, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.