Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Hugo Grenier vs Matthias Uwe Kask
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 68% to Matthias Uwe Kask; the market gives 83% to Hugo Grenier (odds 1.13).
Over their last 10 matches, Hugo Grenier sits at 1-9 (W-L), while Matthias Uwe Kask arrives on a 8-2 run.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Grenier 1423 · Matthias Uwe Kask 1557
| Hugo Grenier | Matthias Uwe Kask | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthias Uwe Kask (rating 1423 vs 1557).
- Matthias Uwe Kask is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hugo Grenier | Matthias Uwe Kask | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (4) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.2-1.9 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.2-12.2 | 12.1-8.5 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Grenier
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Paul Inchauspe M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tristan Berard M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Oliver Okonkwo Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Nardi Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Lloyd Harris French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Pierre Delage Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/02 | Dominic Stephan Stricker Challenger Lugano · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/02 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Rotterdam · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Matthias Uwe Kask
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Didrik Liljekvist M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Ivan Dreycopp M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Markus Molder M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Hanu Patel M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/11 | Pepijn Bastiaansen UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 07/11 | Alejandro Arcila UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 06/11 | Jaden Litt UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/11 | Gian Durrer UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/11 | Gadin Arun UTR Pro Tucson · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Grenier vs Matthias Uwe Kask?
Our model gives 60% to Hugo Grenier, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.