Tennis · Challenger Newport · 07/07, 17:00
Prediction: James McCabe vs Rei Sakamoto
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to James McCabe; the market gives 58% to Rei Sakamoto (odds 1.61).
Over their last 10 matches, James McCabe sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Rei Sakamoto arrives on a 5-5 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · James McCabe 1511 · Rei Sakamoto 1495
| James McCabe | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| James McCabe | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.3 | 11.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 7.6 | 11.8 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.3% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 31.4% | 30.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
James McCabe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Rhys Lawlor Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/06 | Sander Jong ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Coleman Wong ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Martin Damm Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 31/05 | William Moxon Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Jules Leroux Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Anton Matusevich Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Yibing Wu Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Pedro Martinez French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Alex Molcan Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Alexandre Muller Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in James McCabe vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 53% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.