Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 07/07, 10:00
Prediction: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Takuya Kumasaka
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Oscar Jose Gutierrez; the market gives 72% to Takuya Kumasaka (odds 1.30).
Recent form leaves Oscar Jose Gutierrez with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Takuya Kumasaka has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oscar Jose Gutierrez 1553 · Takuya Kumasaka 1500
| Oscar Jose Gutierrez | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oscar Jose Gutierrez (rating 1553 vs 1500).
Statistics
| Oscar Jose Gutierrez | Takuya Kumasaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.8 | 13.8-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oscar Jose Gutierrez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Carles Hernandez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 04/07 | Alejandro Garcia M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Luka Talan Lopatic M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Daniel Verbeek M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Patrik Meszaros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Leyton Rivera M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
Takuya Kumasaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Taiyo Yamanaka Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul M15 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 09/05 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/05 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Takuya Kumasaka?
Our model gives 59% to Takuya Kumasaka, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.