Tennis · Challenger Newport · 05/07, 21:00
Prediction: Kaichi Uchida vs James Trotter
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to James Trotter; the market gives 66% to James Trotter (odds 1.40).
On recent form, Kaichi Uchida is 1-9 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and James Trotter 5-5 over theirs.
64%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaichi Uchida 1405 · James Trotter 1488
| Kaichi Uchida | James Trotter | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours James Trotter (rating 1405 vs 1488).
- James Trotter is in better form: 40% recent wins.
- Note: James Trotter makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Kaichi Uchida | James Trotter | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 17% (6) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.2-1.8 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.1-11.8 | 12.3-12.5 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 8.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.2% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 32.4% | 37.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaichi Uchida
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Max Houkes Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/04 | James McCabe Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Busan · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Justin Boulais Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/04 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
James Trotter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/06 | Ronit Karki Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Ilyas Milad Fahim M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Karl Poling M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/04 | Adam Walton Challenger Busan · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/04 | Jake Delaney Challenger Busan · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/04 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Busan · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 12/04 | Suk Ann Challenger Busan · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/04 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Dan Added Challenger Miyazaki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaichi Uchida vs James Trotter?
Our model gives 64% to James Trotter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.