Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 05/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Crivellaro vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros; the market gives 65% to Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Gabriele Crivellaro sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros arrives on a 5-5 run.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Crivellaro 1423 · Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros 1508
| Gabriele Crivellaro | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros (rating 1423 vs 1508).
- Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Gabriele Crivellaro | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 8-11.7 | 11-10.1 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 63.9% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Crivellaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Nik Mikovic M15 Rovinj · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/02 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Trento · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 16/02 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Trento · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/02 | Andrea Zanini M25 Trento · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/02 | Lorenzo Rottoli Challenger Cesenatico · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/01 | Alaa Trifi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 04/11 | Amaury Raynel ITF M15 San Gregorio di Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 13/10 | Gianluca Cadenasso M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/10 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Lancelot Erler Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 23/06 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Cesar Stefan Bentzel Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/06 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 12/06 | Fadi Bidan M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 05/04 | Tibo Colson Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Crivellaro vs Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros?
Our model gives 63% to Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.