Tennis · UTR Pro Winston-Salem (W) · 07/07, 18:00
Prediction: Natalie Oliver vs Paula Dougherty
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 50% to Natalie Oliver; the market gives 63% to Natalie Oliver (odds 1.50).
On recent form, Natalie Oliver is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Paula Dougherty 2-8 over theirs.
57%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natalie Oliver 1445 · Paula Dougherty 1442
| Natalie Oliver | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Natalie Oliver makes many double faults (6.6/match).
- Note: Paula Dougherty makes many double faults (8.9/match).
Statistics
| Natalie Oliver | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.6 | 8.7-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 6.6 | 8.9 |
| 1st serve % | 58.2% | 56.7% |
| Break % | 32.8% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natalie Oliver
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Addison Iacono UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Jane Dunyon UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Reese Frank UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/04 | Joanna Kennedy UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/04 | Emily Golovanov UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/04 | Veronika Miroshnichenko UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Tanika Saravanan UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/04 | Celine Simunyu UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 08/04 | Yael Saffar W35 Boca Raton |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 21/03 | Mika Buchnik UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
Paula Dougherty
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Eduarda Piai UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniela Borruel UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Natalie Stasny UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Lillie Murphy UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Alicia Herrero Linana UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Linda Ziets Segura UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/08 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Sasha Dimitrov UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Olivia Carneiro UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natalie Oliver vs Paula Dougherty?
Our model gives 57% to Natalie Oliver, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.