Tennis · Challenger Cary · 05/07, 01:00
Prediction: Yosuke Watanuki vs Braden Shick
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Braden Shick; the market gives 65% to Yosuke Watanuki (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Yosuke Watanuki sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Braden Shick arrives on a 8-2 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yosuke Watanuki 1548 · Braden Shick 1579
| Yosuke Watanuki | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 51.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Yosuke Watanuki | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.5 | 12.3-10.2 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Florian Broska Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/03 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/02 | Sebastian Ofner Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/01 | Omar Jasika Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | William Manning M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yosuke Watanuki vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 56% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.