Tennis · M15 Umag · 04/07, 16:00
Prediction: Andrej Martin vs Lorenzo Angelini
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Lorenzo Angelini; the market gives 71% to Andrej Martin (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Andrej Martin sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Lorenzo Angelini arrives on a 5-5 run.
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrej Martin 1555 · Lorenzo Angelini 1561
| Andrej Martin | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Andrej Martin | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.1 | 10.5-7.9 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 63% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 57.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrej Martin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Ivan Biletic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Vito Antonio Darderi M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Adrien Burdet M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Alex Marti Pujolras Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 07/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 02/06 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Daniel Dutra Da Silva Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Lorenzo Angelini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Henry Best M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Dali Blanch Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Gabriele Piraino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Nitin Kumar Sinha Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 15/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Louis Dussin Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/06 | Yannik Kelm M15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrej Martin vs Lorenzo Angelini?
Our model gives 61% to Andrej Martin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.