Prediction: Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Hubert Hurkacz; the market gives 68% to Hubert Hurkacz (odds 1.40).
Recent form leaves Hubert Hurkacz with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Jan-Lennard Struff has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
| Hubert Hurkacz | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 68% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Hubert Hurkacz dominates on serve: 16.5 aces and 41.5% break avg.
- Note: Jan-Lennard Struff makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Hubert Hurkacz | Jan-Lennard Struff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.3 | 1.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.7-16 | 18-18.1 |
| Aces | 16.5 | 14.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 76.2% |
| Break % | 41.5% | 32% |
H2H · Hubert Hurkacz 2 – 2 Jan-Lennard Struff (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubert Hurkacz 2–2 Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/24 ATP Dubai | 2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 25/10/23 ATP Basel | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06/23 ATP Stuttgart | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 18/09/16 Davis Cup | 0-3 | 11-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubert Hurkacz
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-31 | L |
| 25/05 | Jaume Munar French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-15 | W |
| 06/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 03/05 | Matteo Arnaldi Challenger Cagliari · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Jan-Lennard Struff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 02/07 | Brandon Nakashima Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 31-31 | W |
| 29/06 | Sebastian Baez Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-24 | W |
| 23/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Landaluce ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexander Bublik ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Alexis Galarneau ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/05 | Jaime Faria French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 26/05 | Alexander Bublik French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 26-21 | W |
| 18/05 | Jakub Mensik ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff?
Our model gives 60% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.