Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 04/07, 02:00
Prediction: Nicole Weng vs Lily Fairclough
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 51% to Lily Fairclough; the market gives 51% to Nicole Weng (odds 1.80).
Over their last 10 matches, Nicole Weng sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lily Fairclough arrives on a 6-4 run.
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicole Weng 1526 · Lily Fairclough 1534
| Nicole Weng | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Nicole Weng makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Nicole Weng | Lily Fairclough | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.5 | 11.5-9.6 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 61.4% |
| Break % | 53.8% | 71.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicole Weng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Ares Teixido Garcia UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Raegan Farm UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Tallia Harper UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon W15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Olivia Center W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/03 | Alexis Nguyen UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 20/03 | Hanna Chang UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 19/03 | Lyric Bonilla UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/03 | Mackenzie Clark UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 17/03 | Raegan Farm UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Lily Fairclough
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Eduarda Piai UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Sabritt Dozier UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Emily Meng UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Ayana Akli W35 Rome |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Maria Kononova W35 Rome |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Salma Ewing W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Avery Nguyen W15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 9-10 | W |
| 30/05 | Salma Loudili UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 30/05 | Allison Isaacs UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Sonya Goldberg UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicole Weng vs Lily Fairclough?
Our model gives 50% to Nicole Weng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.