Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 15/07, 22:00
Prediction: Orense vs Emelec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.86Total
Orense1.04
Emelec0.82
1X2
Orense
Draw
Emelec
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Orense
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Emelec
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orense
0–3–3
Emelec
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orense 1487 · Emelec 1541
| Orense | Draw | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 35% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emelec (rating 1487 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Emelec: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orense | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 0–3–3 Emelec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Orense |
| 28/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 01/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Orense |
| 02/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Orense |
| 26/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Emelec |
| 13/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orense |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 43 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 29 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 27 |
| 6 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Macara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Tecnico Universitario | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 23 |
| 10 | Orense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 23 |
| 11 | Emelec | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 22 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Libertad | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 18 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 17 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orense | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| LDU Quito | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Leones FC | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Macara | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Emelec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 07/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 02/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 27/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orense vs Emelec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orense win (40%). Probabilities: Orense 40%, draw 32%, Emelec 28%.
How many goals are expected in Orense vs Emelec?
The model expects 1.86 goals (Orense 1.04 · Emelec 0.82), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Orense vs Emelec?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.