Football · Brazil Paulista Serie B · 12/07, 15:00
Prediction: SC Paulinense U23 vs Independente SP U23
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
SC Paulinense U230.95
Independente SP U231.81
1X2
SC Paulinense U23
Draw
Independente SP U23
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
SC Paulinense U23
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Independente SP U23
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SC Paulinense U23 1529 · Independente SP U23 1578
| SC Paulinense U23 | Draw | Independente SP U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market | 19% | 25% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independente SP U23 (rating 1529 vs 1578).
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SC Paulinense U23 | Independente SP U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 3.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 1.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 5.4 / 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SC Paulinense U23
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | Guarulhos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | GO Audax U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Flamengo SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Votoraty U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Paulinia Universitario U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Guarulhos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-3 | 1-7 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | GO Audax U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 02/05 | Flamengo SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Independente SP U23
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tupa U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 28/06 | Tupa U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Gremio Catanduvense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
11-0 | 17-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Santacruzense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Mogi Mirim U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Matonense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Gremio Catanduvense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Mogi Mirim U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SC Paulinense U23 vs Independente SP U23?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independente SP U23 win (57%). Probabilities: SC Paulinense U23 19%, draw 25%, Independente SP U23 57%.
How many goals are expected in SC Paulinense U23 vs Independente SP U23?
The model expects 2.76 goals (SC Paulinense U23 0.95 · Independente SP U23 1.81), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in SC Paulinense U23 vs Independente SP U23?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.