Prediction: Independente SP U23 vs Tupa U23
Expected goals: 3.19 (Independente SP U23 2.23 · Tupa U23 0.95). The model gives 65% home, 21% draw, 14% away. Over 2.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves Independente SP U23 with 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Tupa U23 has piled up 4-1-5 in the same span. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 1 wins for Independente SP U23 and 0 for Tupa U23.
| Independente SP U23 | Draw | Tupa U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independente SP U23 (rating 1575 vs 1485).
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independente SP U23 | Tupa U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.3 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.9 | 4.8 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independente SP U23 1–0–0 Tupa U23
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/26 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Tupa U23 | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independente SP U23 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independente SP U23
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Tupa U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Gremio Catanduvense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
11-0 | 17-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Santacruzense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Mogi Mirim U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Matonense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Gremio Catanduvense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Carlos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Mogi Mirim U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Matonense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Tupa U23
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Independente SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Santa Fe SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Riopretano U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | America SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Assisense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | Jose Bonifacio EC U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Santa Fe SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Riopretano U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | America SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Assisense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independente SP U23 vs Tupa U23?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independente SP U23 win (65%). Probabilities: Independente SP U23 65%, draw 21%, Tupa U23 14%.
How many goals are expected in Independente SP U23 vs Tupa U23?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Independente SP U23 2.23 · Tupa U23 0.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independente SP U23 vs Tupa U23?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.