Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 19/07, 18:00
Prediction: Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Cerro0.79
Racing Club de Montevideo1.18
1X2
Cerro
Draw
Racing Club de Montevideo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Racing Club de Montevideo
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro
1–2–3
Racing Club de Montevideo
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club de Montevideo (rating 1429 vs 1542).
- H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro | Racing Club de Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.7 | 3.4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 5.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro 1–2–3 Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 15/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 10/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 08/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 20/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 19/04/24 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cerro |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro | Racing Club de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Penarol | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Cerro Largo | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Central Espanol | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Torque | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 19/04 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Racing Club de Montevideo win (44%). Probabilities: Cerro 23%, draw 33%, Racing Club de Montevideo 44%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model expects 1.96 goals (Cerro 0.79 · Racing Club de Montevideo 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro vs Racing Club de Montevideo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.