Prediction: Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC vs KMG Holdings
Expected goals: 3 (Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 0.95 · KMG Holdings 2.05). The model gives 16% home, 22% draw, 62% away. Over 2.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC sits at 1-4-5 (W-D-L), while KMG Holdings arrives on a 9-0-1 run. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC and 0 for KMG Holdings, with 2 draws.
| Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | Draw | KMG Holdings | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KMG Holdings (rating 1443 vs 1584).
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | KMG Holdings | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 2.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6 | 3.2 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 0–2–0 KMG Holdings
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 Japan Regional League | KMG Holdings | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC |
| 14/06/25 Japan Regional League | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | KMG Holdings |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | KMG Holdings |
|---|---|---|
| Brew Saga | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| Nippon Steel Oita | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| CA Celeste | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Kawasoe Club | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| NIFS Kanoya FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: KMG Holdings (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 03/08 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
KMG Holdings
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | FC Hakata Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC vs KMG Holdings?
According to our model, the most likely result is an KMG Holdings win (62%). Probabilities: Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 16%, draw 22%, KMG Holdings 62%.
How many goals are expected in Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC vs KMG Holdings?
The model expects 3 goals (Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 0.95 · KMG Holdings 2.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC vs KMG Holdings?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.