Football · UEFA Conference League Qualifying · 07/07, 19:15

Prediction: UNA Strassen vs La Fiorita

Expected goals: 2.49 (UNA Strassen 1.86 · La Fiorita 0.63). The model gives 67% home, 21% draw, 12% away. Under 2.75 goals (57%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-0.

Over its last 10 matches, UNA Strassen sits at 5-4-1 (W-D-L), while La Fiorita arrives on a 6-2-2 run.

67%1
67% 21% 12%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNA Strassen 1549 · La Fiorita 1552
UNA StrassenDrawLa Fiorita
Our model66%23%11%
Market68%19%13%
Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
Expected goals2.49UNA Strassen 1.86 · La Fiorita 0.63
Over / Under 2.75Under 2.75 · 57%
BTTSNo · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

UNA StrassenLa Fiorita
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 0.41.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.21.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/50/10%50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 3.42.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.9 / 0.33.9 / 0.3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UNA Strassen

WWLWDWDDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 Victoria Rosport
Europe Friendlies
1-0 2-0 50 W
19/06 FC 03 Differdange
Europe Friendlies
1-0 1-1 21 D
23/05 US Mondorf-Les-Bains
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-0 0-0 00 D
17/05 F91 Dudelange
Luxembourg Division Nationale
1-0 1-1 D
10/05 Jeunesse Esch
Luxembourg Division Nationale
2-0 3-0 37 W
03/05 FC 03 Differdange
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-0 0-0 21 D
26/04 Jeunesse Canach
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-0 2-0 62 W
19/04 FC Rodange
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-2 1-2 L
12/04 Union Luxembourg
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-0 1-0 63 W
04/04 FC Mamer 32
Luxembourg Division Nationale
0-0 1-0 33 W

La Fiorita

WDWWWLDWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
23/05 Tre Fiori
San Marino Cup
1-1 3-1 55 W
16/05 SS Virtus
San Marino Campionato
1-1 1-2 36 L
12/05 Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato
1-0 1-0 48 W
09/05 Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato
1-0 1-1 55 D
05/05 FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato
1-2 2-3 45 L
02/05 FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato
0-0 1-0 114 W
25/04 FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato
1-1 2-1 21 W
19/04 SS Cosmos
San Marino Campionato
3-1 3-1 30 W
11/04 SP Domagnano
San Marino Campionato
1-0 1-1 47 D
07/04 SS San Giovanni
San Marino Campionato
2-0 3-0 71 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNA Strassen vs La Fiorita?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNA Strassen win (67%). Probabilities: UNA Strassen 67%, draw 21%, La Fiorita 12%.

How many goals are expected in UNA Strassen vs La Fiorita?

The model expects 2.49 goals (UNA Strassen 1.86 · La Fiorita 0.63), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UNA Strassen vs La Fiorita?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.