Prediction: Ararat Armenia vs Riga FC
Expected goals: 2.5 (Ararat Armenia 1.18 · Riga FC 1.32). The model gives 32% home, 29% draw, 39% away. Under 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Ararat Armenia sits at 6-2-2 (W-D-L), while Riga FC arrives on a 8-2-0 run.
| Ararat Armenia | Draw | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1547 vs 1604).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ararat Armenia | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 2.5 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 6.2 | 2.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ararat Armenia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Vojvodina Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/04 | FC Noah Armenian Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/04 | Shirak Armenia Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/04 | FC Noah Armenian Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
Riga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 29/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ararat Armenia vs Riga FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC win (39%). Probabilities: Ararat Armenia 32%, draw 29%, Riga FC 39%.
How many goals are expected in Ararat Armenia vs Riga FC?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Ararat Armenia 1.18 · Riga FC 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ararat Armenia vs Riga FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.