Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
Expected goals: 2.77 (CSKA Sofia 2.16 · Derry City 0.61). The model gives 73% home, 18% draw, 9% away. Under 3 goals (56%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves CSKA Sofia with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Derry City has piled up 2-4-4 in the same span.
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 19% | 8% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1524 vs 1477).
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSKA Sofia | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.8 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 5.3 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Odra Opole Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | NK Brinje Grosuplje Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 15/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia win (73%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia 73%, draw 18%, Derry City 9%.
How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.77 goals (CSKA Sofia 2.16 · Derry City 0.61), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.