Football · USA USL League Two · 11/07, 20:00
Prediction: Philadelphia Lone Star FC vs Real Central NJ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.84Total
Philadelphia Lone Star FC1.97
Real Central NJ1.87
1X2
Philadelphia Lone Star FC
Draw
Real Central NJ
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Philadelphia Lone Star FC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Real Central NJ
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Philadelphia Lone Star FC
1–1–4
Real Central NJ
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Lone Star FC 1442 · Real Central NJ 1458
| Philadelphia Lone Star FC | Draw | Real Central NJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Real Central NJ: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Lone Star FC | Real Central NJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.9 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 50/0/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.2 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Lone Star FC 1–1–4 Real Central NJ
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA USL League Two | Real Central NJ | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 07/07/24 USA USL League Two | Real Central NJ | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 18/05/24 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Real Central NJ |
| 15/07/23 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Real Central NJ |
| 11/07/23 USA USL League Two | Real Central NJ | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 05/07/23 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Real Central NJ |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Mid Atlantic Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocean City Nor'easters | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 7 | 37 |
| 2 | LVU Rush | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 31 |
| 3 | West Chester United | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 4 | Reading United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 5 | Delaware FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 18 |
| 6 | Real Central NJ | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 24 | 15 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 33 | 14 |
| 8 | PA Classics | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 36 | 12 |
| 9 | Eagle FC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 35 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | Real Central NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Reading United | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Ocean City Nor'easters | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Delaware FC | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| West Chester United | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| LVU Rush | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| PA Classics | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Central NJ (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Lone Star FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Reading United USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/06 | Ocean City Nor'easters USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | West Chester United USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Real Central NJ USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/06 | LVU Rush USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | LVU Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
5-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Real Central NJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | West Chester United USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/07 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/06 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | LVU Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/06 | Ocean City Nor'easters USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | Reading United USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Eagle FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Ocean City Nor'easters USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Lone Star FC vs Real Central NJ?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Lone Star FC win (40%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Lone Star FC 40%, draw 23%, Real Central NJ 36%.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Lone Star FC vs Real Central NJ?
The model expects 3.84 goals (Philadelphia Lone Star FC 1.97 · Real Central NJ 1.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Lone Star FC vs Real Central NJ?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.