Prediction: Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan
Expected goals: 2.26 (Hubei Istar 1.21 · Jiangxi Lushan 1.05). The model gives 39% home, 30% draw, 31% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Hubei Istar with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Jiangxi Lushan has piled up 6-0-4 in the same span. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Hubei Istar won 2 and Jiangxi Lushan 1, with 2 draws.
| Hubei Istar | Draw | Jiangxi Lushan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Hubei Istar: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hubei Istar | Jiangxi Lushan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.7 | 1.1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubei Istar 2–2–1 Jiangxi Lushan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 China Division 2 | Jiangxi Lushan | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hubei Istar |
| 26/07/25 China Division 2 | Hubei Istar | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Jiangxi Lushan |
| 14/05/25 China Division 2 | Jiangxi Lushan | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Hubei Istar |
| 03/08/19 China Division 2 | Jiangxi Lushan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hubei Istar |
| 27/04/19 China Division 2 | Hubei Istar | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Jiangxi Lushan |
Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Shenzhen 2028 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 26 |
| 3 | Hubei Istar | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Xiamen Feilu | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Jiangxi Lushan | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 6 | Ganzhou Ruishi | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 7 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| 8 | Guangzhou Dandelion | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 9 | Guangdong Mingtu | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
| 10 | Wenzhou FC | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hubei Istar | Jiangxi Lushan |
|---|---|---|
| Ganzhou Ruishi | 4-4 D | 0-1 L |
| Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Xiamen Feilu | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Guangzhou Dandelion | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Hangzhou Linping Wuyue | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Wuhan Three Towns Reserves | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hubei Istar (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hubei Istar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
2-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 27/06 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/06 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/06 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/05 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 22/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Guangxi Hengchen China FA Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Jiangxi Lushan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Henan China FA Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 27/05 | Xiamen Feilu China Division 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Dalian K'un City China FA Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Wenzhou FC China Division 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hubei Istar win (39%). Probabilities: Hubei Istar 39%, draw 30%, Jiangxi Lushan 31%.
How many goals are expected in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Hubei Istar 1.21 · Jiangxi Lushan 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.