Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 12/07, 16:00
Prediction: FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
FK Atyrau1.06
FC Elimai Semey1.3
1X2
FK Atyrau
Draw
FC Elimai Semey
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Atyrau
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
FC Elimai Semey
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Atyrau
3–1–1
FC Elimai Semey
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Atyrau 1475 · FC Elimai Semey 1509
| FK Atyrau | Draw | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Atyrau: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Atyrau | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 4.2 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Atyrau 3–1–1 FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 1-2 HT 1-2 | FK Atyrau |
| 26/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 3-2 HT 2-1 | FK Atyrau |
| 01/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 26/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 02/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Atyrau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Atyrau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Alashkert FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Elimai Semey win (41%). Probabilities: FK Atyrau 29%, draw 29%, FC Elimai Semey 41%.
How many goals are expected in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model expects 2.36 goals (FK Atyrau 1.06 · FC Elimai Semey 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Atyrau vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.