Prediction: Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
Expected goals: 3.6 (Shanghai Shenhua 1.87 · Beijing Guoan 1.73). The model gives 41% home, 24% draw, 35% away. Under 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Shanghai Shenhua is 3-3-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Beijing Guoan 6-3-1 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Shanghai Shenhua won 2 and Beijing Guoan 1, with 3 draws.
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Beijing Guoan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Shanghai Shenhua: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shanghai Shenhua | Beijing Guoan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.9 | 2.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 2.4 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Shenhua 2–3–1 Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Shanghai Shenhua |
| 19/07/25 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Shanghai Shenhua |
| 01/03/25 China Super League | Shanghai Shenhua | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Beijing Guoan |
| 22/08/24 China FA Cup | Shanghai Shenhua | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 04/08/24 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Shanghai Shenhua |
| 13/04/24 China Super League | Shanghai Shenhua | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Beijing Guoan |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 29 | 24 |
| 5 | Qingdao West Coast | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 24 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | Shandong Taishan | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 21 |
| 8 | Liaoning Ironman | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 20 |
| 9 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 10 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 31 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 8 |
| 16 | Wuhan Three Towns | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shanghai Shenhua | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Dalian Young Boy | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Qingdao West Coast | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Yunnan Yukun | 0-1 L | 3-3 D |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Shandong Taishan | 1-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Beijing Guoan (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shanghai Shenhua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 05/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Guangdong GZ-Power China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Shenhua win (41%). Probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 41%, draw 24%, Beijing Guoan 35%.
How many goals are expected in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Shanghai Shenhua 1.87 · Beijing Guoan 1.73), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.