Football · Canada Premier League · 17/07, 01:00
Prediction: Forge FC vs Pacific FC (CA)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Forge FC2.5
Pacific FC (CA)0.7
1X2
Forge FC
Draw
Pacific FC (CA)
Markets
Under 3.25 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0Most likely total: 3 goals
Recent form · 10 last
Forge FC
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Pacific FC (CA)
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forge FC
5–1
Pacific FC (CA)
(6 last)
76%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forge FC 1613 · Pacific FC (CA) 1382
| Forge FC | Draw | Pacific FC (CA) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 77% | 15% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals3.2Forge FC 2.5 · Pacific FC (CA) 0.7
Over / Under 3.25Under 3.25 · 54%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1613 vs 1382).
- H2H favours Forge FC: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forge FC | Pacific FC (CA) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/44/11% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 5–0–1 Pacific FC (CA)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Canada Premier League | Pacific FC (CA) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Forge FC |
| 27/09/25 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Pacific FC (CA) |
| 19/07/25 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Pacific FC (CA) |
| 24/05/25 Canada Premier League | Pacific FC (CA) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Forge FC |
| 12/04/25 Canada Premier League | Pacific FC (CA) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Forge FC |
| 19/10/24 Canada Premier League | Pacific FC (CA) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Forge FC |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge FC | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 31 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 26 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 17 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter Toronto | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forge FC | Pacific FC (CA) |
|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Vancouver FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| HFX Wanderers | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Inter Toronto | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Cavalry FC | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Atletico Ottawa | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Forge FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forge FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | CS Saint-Laurent Canada Championships |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/07 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Championships |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Pacific FC (CA)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 26/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/06 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Championships |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs Pacific FC (CA)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (76%). Probabilities: Forge FC 76%, draw 16%, Pacific FC (CA) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs Pacific FC (CA)?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Forge FC 2.5 · Pacific FC (CA) 0.7), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Forge FC vs Pacific FC (CA)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.