Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Chicago Fire1.6
Vancouver Whitecaps1.74
1X2
Chicago Fire
Draw
Vancouver Whitecaps
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Vancouver Whitecaps
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire
2–1–3
Vancouver Whitecaps
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1531 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1575
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver Whitecaps (rating 1531 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire | Vancouver Whitecaps | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.8 | 3.5 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Vancouver Whitecaps
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/25 USA MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire |
| 31/08/23 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 24/07/22 USA MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Chicago Fire |
| 23/07/20 USA MLS is Back Tournament | Chicago Fire | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 13/04/19 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
| 08/07/18 USA MLS | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | DC United USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
2-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 30/04 | St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 15/04 | Detroit City FC USA US Open Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Vancouver Whitecaps
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Cavalry FC Canada Championships |
1-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/04 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (41%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 35%, draw 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps 41%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Chicago Fire 1.6 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.74), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.