Basketball · Chile Liga SAESA · 12/07, 01:00
Prediction: Castro SAESA vs Escolar Aleman SAESA
Prediction summary
Estimated points
149Total
Castro SAESA67.6
Escolar Aleman SAESA81.5
1X2
Castro SAESA
Escolar Aleman SAESA
Recent form · 10 last
Castro SAESA
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Escolar Aleman SAESA
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Castro SAESA
3–2
Escolar Aleman SAESA
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Castro SAESA 1458 · Escolar Aleman SAESA 1590
| Castro SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
Estimated total (ours)
149 points · Bet365 line 148.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points149Castro SAESA 67.6 · Escolar Aleman SAESA 81.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Escolar Aleman SAESA (rating 1458 vs 1590).
- Escolar Aleman SAESA is a clear favourite (84% market).
- H2H favours Castro SAESA: 3-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Castro SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 66.5 / 79.7 | 77.9 / 71.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 63.2 / 83.8 | 75 / 69.8 |
| Est. result | 68 | 82 |
Est. total149
Line O/U148.5
Diff.0.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Castro SAESA 3–0–2 Escolar Aleman SAESA
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Chile Liga SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA | 88-69 | Castro SAESA |
| 07/07/19 Chile Liga SAESA | Castro SAESA | 72-64 | Escolar Aleman SAESA |
| 20/05/19 Chile Liga SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA | 90-86 | Castro SAESA |
| 11/06/18 Chile Liga SAESA | Castro SAESA | 89-60 | Escolar Aleman SAESA |
| 14/05/18 Chile Liga SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA | 53-75 | Castro SAESA |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Castro SAESA | Escolar Aleman SAESA |
|---|---|---|
| Valdivia SAESA | 50-100 L | 78-74 W |
| Puerto Montt Basquet SAESA | 52-74 L | 74-68 W |
| San Francisco Asis SAESA | 79-73 W | 67-61 W |
| Puerto Montt SAESA | 71-65 W | 83-66 W |
| Las Animas SAESA | 59-71 L | 67-88 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Escolar Aleman SAESA (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Castro SAESA
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Valdivia SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
50-100 | L |
| 21/06 | Puerto Montt Basquet SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
52-74 | L |
| 08/06 | San Francisco Asis SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
79-73 | W |
| 24/05 | Puerto Montt Basquet SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
66-84 | L |
| 17/05 | Escolar Aleman SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
69-88 | L |
| 26/04 | Puerto Montt SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
71-65 | W |
| 17/08 | Las Animas SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
59-71 | L |
| 16/08 | Las Animas SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
55-102 | L |
| 03/08 | Municipal Loncoche SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
82-65 | W |
| 27/07 | Municipal Loncoche SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
82-75 | W |
Escolar Aleman SAESA
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Valdivia SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
78-74 | W |
| 29/06 | CEB Puerto Montt SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
75-67 | W |
| 21/06 | Puerto Varas SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
81-79 | W |
| 14/06 | San Francisco Asis SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
67-61 | W |
| 07/06 | Puerto Montt Basquet SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
74-68 | W |
| 17/05 | Castro SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
88-69 | W |
| 10/05 | Valdivia SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
87-69 | W |
| 04/05 | Puerto Montt SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
83-66 | W |
| 27/04 | Puerto Varas SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
79-74 | W |
| 28/07 | Las Animas SAESA Chile Liga SAESA |
67-88 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Castro SAESA vs Escolar Aleman SAESA?
Our model gives 84% to Escolar Aleman SAESA.
How many points are expected in Castro SAESA vs Escolar Aleman SAESA?
The model estimates 149 total points (Castro SAESA 67.6 · Escolar Aleman SAESA 81.5).