Tennis · Premier Padel Bordeaux Women · 02/07, 17:00
Prediction: Brea/Triay vs Goenaga/Caldera
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 71% to Brea/Triay; the market gives 88% to Brea/Triay (odds 1.07).
Over their last 10 matches, Brea/Triay sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Goenaga/Caldera arrives on a 5-5 run.
80%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brea/Triay 1636 · Goenaga/Caldera 1478
| Brea/Triay | Goenaga/Caldera | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brea/Triay (rating 1636 vs 1478).
- Brea/Triay is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Brea/Triay 6–0 Goenaga/Caldera (6).
Statistics
| Brea/Triay | Goenaga/Caldera | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-8.4 | 9.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 0 | 0 |
| Double faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 52.5% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +2.1
Over 18.5: 64% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 36% · 1.83
H2H · Brea/Triay 6 – 0 Goenaga/Caldera (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brea/Triay 6–0 Goenaga/Caldera
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 Premier Padel Valladolid Women | 2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 29/11/25 Premier Padel Acapulco Women | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 13/11/25 Premier Padel Dubai Women | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/11/25 Padel - FIP World Cup Pairs Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/07/25 Premier Padel Tarragona Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/04/25 Premier Padel Doha Women | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brea/Triay
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ustero/Sanchez Premier Padel Valladolid Women |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Barrera/Fassio Premier Padel Valladolid Women |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Goenaga/Caldera Premier Padel Valladolid Women |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Ustero/Sanchez Premier Padel Valencia Women |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Virseda/Guinart Premier Padel Valencia Women |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Las Heras/Mesa Premier Padel Valencia Women |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Ustero/Sanchez Premier Padel Rome Women |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Rodriguez/Dal Pozzo Premier Padel Rome Women |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Icardo/Jensen Premier Padel Rome Women |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 04/06 | Escacena/Martinez Premier Padel Rome Women |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Goenaga/Caldera
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Brea/Triay Premier Padel Valladolid Women |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Barrera/Velasco Premier Padel Valladolid Women |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Ustero/Sanchez Premier Padel Valencia Women |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Barrera/Fassio Premier Padel Valencia Women |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Canovas/Rodriguez Premier Padel Valencia Women |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/06 | Fernandez/Araujo Premier Padel Rome Women |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Piltcher/Valenzuela Premier Padel Rome Women |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Iglesias/Osoro Premier Padel Buenos Aires Women |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Gonzalez/Josemaria Premier Padel Asuncion Women · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Rufo/Castello Premier Padel Asuncion Women · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brea/Triay vs Goenaga/Caldera?
Our model gives 80% to Brea/Triay, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.